@@ -17,2 +17,3 @@
*. Practice makes you better at things, but so does randomly being talented for no obvious reason.
-*. In situations with discrete win/loss cutoffs you may be better off increasing variance rather than expectation.
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+*. In situations with discrete win/loss cutoffs you may be better off increasing variance rather than expectation.
+*. If you predict that you will do/believe a thing in some circumstance, and predict that that circumstance will happen, update all the way and do/believe the thing now.
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